In war, social movements, politics, business and everyday living, what is possible is governed by logistics.  The 2023 Online Economic History Workshop solicited for papers on the impact of logistics on what can or cannot be achieved in a human endeavor.. 

The Delayed Impact of Containers on International Trade Growth 

By: Benjamin Bridgman, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Containers are commonly thought to be important for international trade but the evidence is thin.  Bridgman argues that containers were important to trade expansion but not when they were first adopted.  Using previously unused data, I show that U.S. aggregate freight factors do not fall when containers were first adopted (1967–72). It took a decade before containerized freight rates fell. Falling freight rates matter for trade growth, accounting for 20 percent of the increase in U.S. import share from 1967 to 1999. All this contribution occurred after the adoption period. The delay helps resolve the apparent increase in Armington elasticity since the 1960s. Freight rates fell significantly in the 1980s when tariffs did not fall much but trade expanded. Institutional factors in port industry delayed containers’ significant labor cost savings. Compensation deals to longshoremen kept labor costs up despite rapidly increasing labor productivity in ports.